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Early Warnings for Ecological Tipping Points

August 15, 2012
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Wetland with trees in the background showing fall foliage

A new paper co-authored by HF senior ecologist Aaron Ellison explores early-warning detection signaling in systems undergoing rapid change. As ecosystems approach critical thresholds, scientists can choose a number of different methods to detect early warning signs. The authors recommend combining these methods to avoid false alarms or missed signals. Their results can be applied in a variety of analysis types: biological (e.g. gene expression), climatic (e.g. daily temperature), physiological (e.g. respiratory rhythm), social (e.g. numbers of tweets), or financial (i.e. stock prices).

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