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Scenarios to Simulation

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Thursday, February 26 -  Friday, February 27, 2015
The Hanover Inn and Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH

Convened by the S3 Research Coordination Network

Host: Mark Borsuk, Associate Professor, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College

Organizer: Jonathan Thompson, Senior Ecologist, Harvard Forest, Kathy Fallon Lambert, Director of the Science and Policy Exchange, Harvard Forest, Katie Theoharides, Principal, Theoharides Consulting

Facilitators: Pat Field, Managing Director, Consensus Building Institute

Workshop Description: Having agreed on the value of examining stakeholder-defined land-use scenarios for identifying sustainable futures in New England, the S3 RCN is now seeking to define a suite of best practices for incorporating qualitative narrative scenarios into quantitative simulations of land change. Josef Alcamo, in his work crafting the Millennium Assessment scenarios, referred to this work as the challenge of integrating “story and simulation.” This day and a half workshop will bring together the S3 RCN steering committee, collaborators, and invited speakers to learn from past scenario research collaborations, review the state of the art, and begin to develop a synthesis manuscript. This workshop is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DEB-1338809.

Workshop Objectives: 
1. To review common approaches for simulating land-use regimes that faithfully characterize pre-defined narrative scenarios and to identify the strengths and weakness of these approaches.

2. To identify best practices for land change scientists to co-develop model parameterizations with the stakeholders who articulated the scenarios.  

3. To identify best practices with regard to identifying models that are best able to capture the dynamics and outcomes that are relevant within the scenarios and important to the stakeholders.