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Harvard Forest Data Archive

HF316

LANDIS-II PnET Simulation of Recent Trends in Forest Change in New England 2010-2060

Related Publications

Data

  • hf316-01: climate change and static climate input files
  • hf316-02: wind and timber harvest input files
  • hf316-03: climate scenario specific ecoregion parameter files
  • hf316-04: ecoregion, management area, initial community and stand maps
  • hf316-05: recent trends and grow-only land-use scenario files
  • hf316-06: species-specific and generic parameter files
  • hf316-07: PnET-Succession input files

Overview

  • Lead: Matthew Duveneck
  • Investigators: Jonathan Thompson
  • Contact: Matthew Duveneck
  • Start date: 2010
  • End date: 2060
  • Status: completed
  • Location: New England
  • Latitude: +40.9 to +47.4
  • Longitude: -74.0 to -66.9
  • Elevation: 0 to 2000 meter
  • Taxa: Abies balsamea (balsam fir), Acer rubrum (red maple), Acer saccharum (sugar maple), Betula alleghaniensis (yellow birch), Betula lenta (sweet birch), Betula papyrifera (paper birch), Betula populifolia (gray birch), Carya glabra (pignut hickory), Fagus grandifolia (American beech), Fraxinus americana (white ash), Fraxinus nigra (black ash), Larix laricina (tamarack (native)), Ostrya virginiana (eastern hophornbeam), Picea glauca (white spruce), Picea mariana (black spruce), Picea rubens (red spruce), Pinus resinosa (red pine), Pinus rigida (pitch pine), Pinus strobus (eastern white pine), Populus balsamifera (balsam poplar), Populus grandidentata (bigtooth aspen), Populus tremuloides (quaking aspen), Prunus serotina (black cherry), Quercus alba (white oak), Quercus coccinea (scarlet oak), Quercus prinus (chestnut oak), Quercus rubra (northern red oak), Quercus velutina (black oak), Thuja occidentalis (northern white-cedar), Tilia americana (American basswood), Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock), Ulmus americana (American elm)
  • Release date: 2019
  • Revisions:
  • EML file: knb-lter-hfr.316.1
  • DOI: digital object identifier
  • Related links:
  • Study type: modeling
  • Research topic: ecological informatics and modelling; physiological ecology, population dynamics and species interactions; regional studies
  • LTER core area: disturbance, primary production
  • Keywords: carbon, climate change, disturbance, land use, modeling, species composition, timber harvest
  • Abstract:

    The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC—an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m-2). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape’s potential to store carbon and the landscape’s current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage.

  • Methods:

    This study used the LANDIS-II v6.2 forest landscape modeling framework with the PnET-Succession v.2.1.1 and Biomass Harvest v.3.2 extensions.

    For a detailed description of methods, please see the published paper: Duveneck, M. J., J. R. Thompson. 2019. Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England : Effects of a modern land-use. Global Environmental Change 55: 115-129.

  • Use:

    This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons license CC BY (Attribution). Please keep the designated contact person informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation or collaboration with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset must include proper acknowledgement.

  • Citation:

    Duveneck M. 2019. LANDIS-II PnET Simulation of Recent Trends in Forest Change in New England 2010-2060. Harvard Forest Data Archive: HF316.

Detailed Metadata

hf316-01: climate change and static climate input files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files

hf316-02: wind and timber harvest input files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files

hf316-03: climate scenario specific ecoregion parameter files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files

hf316-04: ecoregion, management area, initial community and stand maps

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: img
  • Type: raster GIS

hf316-05: recent trends and grow-only land-use scenario files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files

hf316-06: species-specific and generic parameter files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files

hf316-07: PnET-Succession input files

  • Compression: zip
  • Format: txt
  • Type: text files