Modeling

Research Programs > LTER > Modeling

Over the last ten years, we have developed and applied the PnET models for use in predicting forest ecosystem response to current and future environmental conditions, to provide hydrologic information needed for soil solution flux estimates and to extend local knowledge about ecosystem processes to regional spatial scales.

Results include:

• Spatial prediction of gross and net primary production for the Harvard Forest Landscape using foliar N concentration estimates derived from hyperspectral remote sensing.
• Use of reconstructed climate, land use and atmospheric chemistry data to predict the historical effects of N deposition, CO₂ enrichment, ozone pollution and land use history on current NPP and net carbon exchange.
• Use of monthly estimates of water drainage through forests at the Harvard Forest to estimate total nitrate flux below the rooting zone in the chronic nitrogen addition experiment.
• Regional estimates of forest C and N cycling for the northeastern U.S. derived by coupling PnET with a regional GIS data set of climate and vegetation conditions.

Selected Publications

Foster, D. and J. Aber. (Eds) 2003. Forests in Time: the Environmental Consequences of 1000 Years of Change in New England . Yale University Press, New Haven, CT (In Press)

Currie, W. S., K. J. Nadelhoffer, and J. D. Aber. 2003. Decadal scale turnover of soil organic N at the Harvard Forest: an inverse modeling analysis of ecosystem-level ¹⁵N tracer redistributions. Forest Ecology and Management (Submitted)

Boose, E. R. 2003. A historical-modeling method for reconstructing hurricane impacts. In R. Murnane and K. Liu (Eds.), Hurricanes and typhoons: Past, Present and Future. Columbia University Press

Aber, J., W. Currie, M. Castro, M. Martin, and S. Ollinger. 2003. Synthesis and extrapolation: models, remote sensing and regional analysis. In D. Foster and J. Aber (Eds.), Forests in Time: the Environmental Consequences of 1000 Years of Change in New England. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT (In Press)

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, P. B. Reich, and R. Freuder. 2002. Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone, elevated CO₂ and land use history on the carbon dynamics of northern hardwood forests. Global Change Biology 8: 545-562

Yorks, T. E., J. C. Jenkins, D. J. Leopold, D. J. Raynal, and D. A. Orwig. 2000. Influences of eastern hemlock mortality on nutrient cycling. In . In K. A. McManus, K. S. Shields, and D. R. Souto (Eds.), Sustainable Management of Hemlock Ecosystems in Eastern North America. Symposium Proceedings.

Prinn, R., H. Jacoby, A. Sokolov, C. Wang, X. Xiao, Z. Yang, R. Eckaus, P. Stone, D. Ellerman, J. Melillo, J. Fitzmaurice, D. Kicklighter, G. Holian, and Y. Liu. 2000. Integrated global system model for climate policy assessment: Feedbacks and sensitivity studies. Climatic Change 41: 469-546

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, J. T. Randerson, W. J. Parton, M. Heimann, R. A. Meier, J. S. Clein-Curley, D. W. Kicklighter, and W. Sauf. 2000. Modeling the effects of snowpack on heterotrophic respiration across northern temperate and high latitude regions: Comparison with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in high latitudes. Biogeochemistry 48: 91-114

Martin, M. E. and J. D. Aber. 2000. Estimating forest canopy characteristics as inputs for models of forest carbon exchange by high spectral resolution remote sensing. Pp. 61-72 In H. Gholz (Eds.), The Use of Remote Sensing in the Modeling of Forest Productivity at Scales from the Stand to the Globe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands

Law, B. E., R. H. Waring, J. D. Aber, and P. M. Anthoni. 2000. Measurements of gross and net ecosystem productivity and water vapor exchange of a Pinus poderosa ecosystem and an evaluation of two generalized models. Global Change Biology 6: 155-168

Jenkins, J. C., D. W. Kicklighter, and J. D. Aber. 2000. Predicting the regional impacts of increased CO₂ and climate change on forest productivity: a model comparison using PnET-II and TEM 4.0. Pp. 383-423 In R. Birdsey, J. Hom, and R. Mickler (Eds.), Responses of Northern Forests to Environmental Change. Springer-Verlag

Aber, J. D. and R. Freuder. 2000. Sensitivity of a forest production model to variation in solar radiation data sets for the Eastern U.S. Climate Research 15: 33-43

Moorehead, D. L., W. S. Currie, E. B. Rastetter, W. J. Parton, and M. E. Harmon. 1999. Climate and litter quality controls on decomposition: an analysis of modeling approaches. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13: 575-589

Kicklighter, D. W., M. Bruno, S. Dönges, G. Esser, M. Heimann, F. Helfrich, F. Ift, F. Joos, J. Kaduk, G. H. Kohlmaier, A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, R. Meyer, B. I. N. A. Moore, I. C. Prentice, W. Sauf, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, U. Wittenberg, and G. Würth. 1999. A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO₂ fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: a comparison study of four terrestrial biosphere models. Tellus 51B: 343-366

Jenkins, J. C., D. W. Kicklighter, and J. D. Aber. 1999. Sources of variability in NPP predictions at a regional scale: a comparison using PnET-II and TEM 4.0 in northeastern forests. Ecosystems 2: 555-570

Jasienski, M. and F. A. Bazzaz. 1999. The fallacy of ratios and the testability of models in biology. Oikos 84: 321-326

Pan, Y., J. M. Melillo, A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, L. F. Pitelka, K. Hibbard, L. L. Pierce, S. W. Running, D. S. Ojima, W. J. Parton, D. S. Schimel, and o. V. E. M. A. P. Members. 1998. Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO₂: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP). Oecologia 114: 389-404

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, and C. A. Federer. 1998. Estimating regional forest productivity and water yield using an ecosystem model linked to a GIS. Landscape Ecology 13: 323-334

Heimann, M., G. Esser, A. Haxeltine, J. Kaduk, D. W. Kicklighter, W. Knorr, G. H. Kohlmaier, A. D. McGuire, J. Melillo, B. Moore, R. D. Otto, I. C. Prentice, W. Sauf, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, U. Wittenberg, and G. Würth. 1998. Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models through simulations of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂: first results of a model intercomparison study. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12: 1-24

Goodale, C. L., J. D. Aber, and S. V. Ollinger. 1998. Mapping monthly precipitation, temperature and solar radiation for Ireland with polynomial regression and a digital elevation model. Climate Research 10: 35-49

Goodale, C. L., J. D. Aber, and E. P. Farrell. 1998. Applying an uncalibrated, physiologically based model of forest productivity to Ireland. Climate Research 10: 51-67

Bishop, G. D., M. R. Church, J. D. Aber, R. P. Neilson, S. V. Ollinger, and C. Daley. 1998. A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in the northeastern United States. Journal of Hydrology 206: 176-190

Xiao, X., D. W. Kicklighter, J. M. Melillo, A. D. McGuire, P. H. Stone, and A. P. Sokolov. 1997. Linking a global terrestrial biogeochemical model and a 2-dimensional climate model: implications for the carbon budget. Tellus 49B: 18-37

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, and P. B. Reich. 1997. Simulating ozone effects on forest productivity: interactions between leaf,-canopy,-and stand-level processes. Ecological Applications 7: 1237-1251

Martin, M. E., S. D. Newman, J. D. Aber, and R. Congalton. 1997. Determining forest species composition using high spectral resolution remote sensing data. Remote Sensing of the Environment 65: 249-254

Martin, M. E. and J. D. Aber. 1997. Estimation of forest canopy lignin and nitrogen concentration and ecosystem processes by high spectral resolution remote sensing. Ecological Applications 7: 431-443

Hill, C. 1997. The representation of categorical ambiguity: a comparison of fuzzy, probabilistic Boolean and index approaches in suitability analysis. Ph.D. Thesis, Harvard

Aber, J. D., S. V. Ollinger, C. A. Federer, and C. Driscoll. 1997. Modeling nitrogen saturation in forest ecosystems in response to land use and atmospheric deposition. Ecological Modelling 101: 61-78

Aber, J. D. and C. T. Driscoll. 1997. Effects of land use, climate variation and N deposition on N cycling and C storage in northern hardwood forests. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11: 639-648

Aber, J. D. 1997. Why don't we believe the models? Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 78: 232-233

Williams, M., E. B. Rastetter, D. Fernandes, M. L. Goulden, S. C. Wofsy, G. R. Shaver, J. M. Melillo, J. W. Munger, S.-M. Fan, and K. J. Nadelhoffer. 1996. Modeling the soil-plant atmosphere continuum in a Quercus-Acer stand at Harvard Forest: the regulation of stomatal conductance by light nitrogen and soil/plant hydraulic properties. Plant, Cell and Environment 19: 911-927

Pan, Y., A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, and J. M. Melillo. 1996. The importance of climate and soils for estimates of net primary production: a sensitivity analysis with the terrestrial ecosystem model. Global Change Biology 2: 5-23

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, and P. B. Reich. 1996. Predicting the effects of tropospheric ozone on forest productivity in the northeastern U.S. Pp. 217-225 Proceedings, 1995 Meeting of the Northern Global Change Program. USDA/USFS General Technical Report NE-214

Bolster, K. L., M. E. Martin, and J. D. Aber. 1996. Interactions between precision and generality in the development of calibrations for the determination of carbon fraction and nitrogen concentration in foliage by near infrared reflectance. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26: 590-600

Aber, J. D., P. B. Reich, and M. I. Goulden. 1996. Extrapolating leaf CO₂ exchange to the canopy: a generalized model of forest photosynthesis validated by eddy correlation. Oecologia 106: 257-265

Waring, R. H., B. E. Law, M. L. Goulden, S. L. Bassow, R. W. McCreight, S. C. Wofsy, and F. A. Bazzaz. 1995. Scaling tower estimates of photosynthesis to constrained quantum-use. Efficiency model and remote sensing. Plant, Cell and Environment 18: 1201-1213

VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO₂ doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9: 407-437

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, C. A. Federer, G. M. Lovett, and J. M. Ellis. 1995. Modeling physical and chemical climatic variables across the northeastern U.S. for a geographic information system. General Tech. Report NE-191: 30 pp

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, and L. A. Joyce. 1995. Equilibrium responses of soil carbon to climate change: Empirical and process-based estimates. Journal of Biogeography 22: 785-796

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, and L. A. Joyce. 1995. The role of nitrogen in the response of forest net primary production to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26: 473-503

Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, T. H. Painter, D. S. Schimel, and V. E. M. A. P. M. Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22: 857-862

Aber, J. D., S. V. Ollinger, C. A. Federer, P. B. Reich, M. L. Goulden, D. W. Kicklighter, J. M. Melillo, and Jr. R. G. L. Lathrop. 1995. Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern U.S. Climate Research 5: 207-222

Martin, M. E. 1994. Measurements of foliar chemistry using laboratory and airborne high spectral resolution visible and infrared data. PhD Thesis, University of New Hampshire

Kicklighter, D. W., J. M. Melillo, W. T. Peterjohn, E. B. Rastetter, A. D. McGuire, P. A. Steudler, and J. D. Aber. 1994. Scaling field measurements to estimate regional carbon dioxide fluxes from temperate forest soils. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 1303-1315

Ollinger, S. V., J. D. Aber, G. M. Lovett, S. E. Millham, R. G. Lathrop, and J. E. Ellis. 1993. A spatial model of atmospheric deposition for the northeastern U.S. Ecological Applications 3: 459-472

Aber, J. D., C. Driscoll, C. A. Federer, R. Lathrop, G. Lovett, J. M. Melillo, P. Steudler, and J. Vogelmann. 1993. A strategy for the regional analysis of the effects of physical and chemical climate change on biogeographical cycles in northeastern (U.S.) forests. Ecological Modelling 67: 37-47

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, A. Joyce, D. W. Kicklighter, A. L. Grace, B. I. Moore, and C. J. Vorosmarty. 1992. Interactions between carbon and nitrogen dynamics in estimating net primary productivity for potential vegetation in North America. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6: 101-124

Foster, D. R. and E. Boose. 1992. Patterns of forest damage resulting from catastrophic wind in central New England, USA. Journal of Ecology 80: 79-99

Aber, J. D. and C. A. Federer. 1992. A generalized, lumped-parameter model of photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and net primary production in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Oecologia 92: 463-474

Tomlin, C. D. 1991. Cartographic modeling. p.Ch. 23 In M. Goodchild, D. Maguire, and R. Rhind (Eds.), Geographic Information Systems: Principles and Applications. Longman Group, Ltd, Harlow, Essex, United Kingdom

Rastetter, E. B., M. G. Ryan, G. R. Shaver, J. M. Melillo, K. J. Nadelhoffer, J. E. Hobbie, and J. D. Aber. 1991. A general biogeochemical model describing the responses of the C and N cycles in terrestrial ecosystems to changes in CO₂ climate and N deposition. Tree Physiology 9: 101-126

McLellan, T., M. E. Martin, J. D. Aber, J. M. Melillo, K. J. Nadelhoffer, and B. Dewey. 1991. Comparison of wet chemical and near infrared reflectance measurements of carbon fraction chemistry and nitrogen concentration of forest foliage. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21: 1689-1693

McLellan, T., J. D. Aber, M. E. Martin, J. M. Melillo, and K. J. Nadelhoffer. 1991. Determination of nitrogen, lignin and cellulose content of decomposing leaf material by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21: 1684-1688

Tomlin, C. D.1990. Geographic Information Systems and Cartographic Modeling. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey

Martin, M. E. and J. D. Aber. 1990. Effects of moisture content and chemical composition on the near infrared spectra of forest foliage. In: Proceedings of the International Society for Optical Engineering Technical Symposium on Aerospace Sensing

Martin, M. E. and J. D. Aber. 1990. The effect of water content and leaf structure on the estimation of nitrogen, lignin and cellulose content of forest foliage samples. Remote Sensing for the Nineties IGARSS: 24-28

Finnie, T. C., C. D. Tomlin, J. Bossler, D. Cowen, B. Petchenik, H. Thomas, T. Wilbanks, and J. Estes.1990. Spatial data needs: the future of the national mapping program. National Academy Press, Washington, D. C

Aber, J. D., J. M. Melillo, and C. A. McClaugherty. 1990. Predicting long-term patterns of mass-loss, nitrogen dynamics and soil organic matter formation from initial litter chemistry in forest ecosystems. Canadian Journal of Botany 68: 2201-2208

Wessman, C. A., J. D. Aber, and D. L. Peterson. 1989. An evaluation of imaging spectrometry for estimating forest canopy chemistry. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 10: 1293-1316

Aber, J. D., C. A. Wessman, D. L. Peterson, J. M. Melillo, and J.H. Fownes. 1989. Remote sensing of litter and soil organic matter decomposition in forest ecosystems. Remote Sensing of Biosphere Functioning 87-103

Wessman, C. A., J. D. Aber, D. L. Peterson, and J. M. Melillo. 1988. Remote sensing of canopy chemistry and nitrogen cycling in temperate forest ecosystems. Nature 335: 154-156

Wessman, C. A., J. D. Aber, D. L. Peterson, and J. M. Melillo. 1988. Foliar analysis using near infrared spectroscopy. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 18: 6-11