Michael Papaik

Institute of Ecosystem Studies

Primary Interests:

forest ecology; disturbance ecology; interactions between natural disturbance and human; interactions between pathogens and abiotic disturbance; dispersal; climate change; vegetation response and effect on climate change; spatially-explicit modeling of forest dynamics

HWA Objectives:

I am interested in developing predictive, spatially explicit models of HWA dispersal as a function of hemlock density and distribution, and climate factors. The rapid spread of HWA throughout the Connecticut River valley over the past 20 years has occurred in a region where hemlock is common, but patchily distributed. As the adelgid spreads northward, it is encountering habitats where hemlock is more common and more uniformly distributed. Depending on HWA response to these host-rich habitats the rate of spread of HWA could either increase or decrease. Further, HWA dispersal could be limited by its cold tolerance as it spreads northward. As we seek to understand and predict the short- and long-term effects of HWA on hemlock forests, we must first learn how the rate of dispersal of HWA will change depending on these factors.