uid=HFR,o=lter,dc=ecoinformatics,dc=org
all
public
read
doi:10.6073/pasta/959e8d345a85b0fd7810d9ab1303896f
Thresholds and Regime Shifts at Four LTER Sites (CCE, JRN, PAL, SBC) 1951-2009
Brandon
Bestelmeyer
Aaron
Ellison
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4151-6081
Edward
Brinton
Researcher
William
Fraser
Researcher
Sally
Holbrook
Researcher
Mark
Ohman
Researcher
Donna
Patterson-Fraser
Researcher
Andrew
Rassweiler
Researcher
Russell
Schmitt
Researcher
2023
English
The existence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states is of great concern because the likelihood of such transitions is predicted to increase. The science for measuring and responding to state changes, however, is not well developed. This limitation stems from a lack of data-supported case studies of abrupt transitions in all but a few well-studied ecosystems. We used 30-60 years of data on biological responses and putative drivers from ocean, coastal, polar, and dryland ecosystems to illustrate general approaches to analysis of abrupt transitions. The analyses indicate one case in which the state or response variable (krill abundance) tracked abrupt changes in the driver (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in a linear fashion. Response variables in other cases (sea cucumber abundance, penguin abundance, and perennial grass production) exhibited hysteretic relationships to drivers (wave intensity, sea ice duration, and monsoonal rainfall amounts, respectively) through a variety of response mechanisms. The analyses illustrate that 1) a suite of common concepts and approaches can be used across disparate systems, 2) there are generally insufficient data for the use of leading indicators, particularly considering the abruptness of transition relative to the lifespan of long-lived organisms, 3) information on spatiotemporal context is useful for comparing transitions in similar systems, and 4) ancillary information from associated experiments and observations is critical for interpreting response-driver relationships.
ecosystems
population dynamics
thresholds
LTER controlled vocabulary
populations
LTER core area
Harvard Forest
HFR
LTER
USA
HFR default
This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.
Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal
https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html
CC0-1.0
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf170
CCE-LTER, JRN-LTER, PAL-LTER, SBC-LTER. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum.
-121.8
-64.0
+34.5
-64.8
-210
1320
meter
1951
2009
genus
Aristida
species
spp.
genus
Bouteloua
species
eriopoda
black grama grass
genus
Nyctiphanes
species
simplex
krill
genus
Pachythyone
species
rubra
aggregating red sea cucumber
genus
Pygoscelis
species
adeliae
adelie penguin
genus
Pygoscelis
species
antarctica
chinstrap penguin
genus
Pygoscelis
species
papua
gentoo penguin
genus
Sporobolus
species
spp.
complete
Information Manager
Harvard Forest
324 North Main Street
Petersham
MA
01366
USA
(978) 724-3302
hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu
Harvard Forest
324 North Main Street
Petersham
MA
01366
USA
(978) 724-3302
(978) 724-3595
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu
Krill project
For detailed methods, please see: (1) Brinton, E., Townsend, A., 2003. Decadal variability in abundances of the dominant euphausiid species in southern sectors of the California Current. Deep-Sea Research Part II 50: 2469-2492. (2) Lavaniegos, B.E., Ohman, M.D., 2007. Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current System. Progress in Oceanography 75: 42-69. (3) Ohman, M.D., Smith, P.E., 1995. A comparison of zooplankton sampling methods in the CalCOFI time series. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports 36: 153-158.
Penguin project
For detailed methods, please see: http://pal.lternet.edu.
Sea cucumber project
For detailed methods, please see: Rassweiler A., R. J. Schmitt, and S. J. Holbrook SJ. 2010. Triggers and maintenance of multiple shifts in the state of a natural community. Oecologia 164:489-498.
Black grama grass project
For detailed methods, please see: http://jornada-www.nmsu.edu.
Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research
Harvard Forest
324 North Main Street
Petersham
MA
01366
USA
(978) 724-3302
(978) 724-3595
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu
https://ror.org/059cpzx98
pointOfContact
The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts.
National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210.
hf170-01-krill.csv
krill
hf170-01-krill.csv
1138
a5f70f04152ac7e4d4167d7be5ae4a27
1
\r\n
column
,
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p17/hf170/hf170-01-krill.csv
year
sample year (1951-2009)
YYYY
1 year
pdo.index
Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. Values from http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
dimensionless
0.001
real
NA
missing value
n.sim
abundance of Nyctiphanes simplex; values are log10 of actual abundance values
dimensionless
0.0001
real
NA
missing value
59
hf170-02-penguins.csv
penguins
hf170-02-penguins.csv
855
bd7a7e7b587560f600216276e2b5384f
1
\r\n
column
,
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p17/hf170/hf170-02-penguins.csv
year
sample year (1974-2010)
YYYY
adelies
number of nesting Adelie penguins
number
1
natural
NA
missing value
chinstraps
number of nesting Chinstrap penguins
number
1
natural
NA
missing value
gentoos
number of nesting Gentoo penguins
number
1
natural
NA
missing value
ice.days
estimated duration of sea ice in days
number
natural
NA
missing value
37
hf170-03-cucumbers.csv
cucumbers
hf170-03-cucumbers.csv
532
ecd3003d0acef1112dbd5083d506c4ac
1
\r\n
column
,
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p17/hf170/hf170-03-cucumbers.csv
year
year sampling occurred (1982-2010)
YYYY
p.rub
percent cover of Pachythyone rubra
dimensionless
0.000000001
real
NA
missing value
wave.days
number of days with large waves (defined as days with maximum significant wave height above 3.25 m)
number
natural
NA
missing value
29
hf170-04-pastures.csv
pastures
hf170-04-pastures.csv
763
897a8a045d178d26866d6d3282e8a382
1
\r\n
column
,
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p17/hf170/hf170-04-pastures.csv
year
year of data (1938-1971)
YYYY
p2.yield
estimated annual net primary productivity for pasture 2
poundPerAcre
0.1
real
NA
missing value
p9.yield
estimated annual net primary productivity for pasture 9
poundPerAcre
0.1
real
NA
missing value
js.precip
rainfall at the West Well rain gauge, located between pastures 2 and 9
inch
0.01
real
NA
missing value
34
hf170-05-R-threshold.txt
R code for exploratory data analysis for threshold detection
hf170-05-R-threshold.txt
8325
49c7fb6259c190db527a011a239a7a9a
R script
https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p17/hf170/hf170-05-R-threshold.txt
script
community
long-term measurement
https://cce.lternet.edu/
https://jornada-www.nmsu.edu/
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
https://pallter.marine.rutgers.edu/
https://sbc.lternet.edu/