Harvard Forest Research

Land Owner Decision Monitoring Over the Long Term: Point sampling of decisions and consequences on land.

Principal Investigator: David Kittredge
UMASS - University of Massachusetts: May 01 2009 - May 01 2011:

Abstract:
Landscapes dominated by private ownership experience change as properties change hands, change monetary value, undergo land use conversion, become isolated or lose road access, or are divided and hence smaller in size. The future ecological integrity, connectivity, and function of landscapes dominated by private ownership depend on the speed or frequency with which decisions are made, the kinds of decisions, and their outcomes or consequences. One way to study this human behavior on land is through attitudinal surveys of owners investigating their motivations, beliefs, and values. Another is to pose hypothetical circumstances and query owners about potential response or reactions. Another involves the study of social networks around owners, and determining the extent to which information flows between owners and may influence decisions. We propose instead to study or monitor decisions made and resulting circumstances, and to establish a long-term framework or network of points at which land owner decisions will be sampled over time. In essence, we propose to study behavior enacted on the landscape, rather than individual people. Data derived from this network and sampling will inform land use scenario modeling efforts to forecast the future trajectory of the landscape, its rate of change, and subsequent potential provision of ecosystem services.
The network will be established to monitor change over time in the future, but an important aspect will be to establish the baseline and antecedent circumstances that led to existing conditions. A classic historic study following specific decision-making over time on land ownership over generations is told in the Sanderson Farm story at the Harvard Forest: http://www.foresthistory.org/Publications/FHT/FHT1997/SandersonsFarm.pdf
Establishment of the baseline and historic circumstances will inform models of future decisions. Subsequent future maintenance of the network and monitoring activity will enable test or validation of the models, and improved forecasting of future scenarios. The network of sample points will also provide a structure to survey landowner attitudes, as their landscapes or surroundings evolve.
This REU project will establish a test network of points in the North Quabbin area surrounding the Harvard Forest, and establish the baseline and historical circumstances for each one. This will involve knowledge and application of GIS and spatial data, as well as study of deed and land transaction records, harvest permits, and census data. The REU student will need to locate the sample points on maps in a GIS, and study ownership parcel and tax data to determine current ownership, and then track real estate transactions back through time via county tax and land transfer records, assembling a provenance and sequential history of land ownership for each point, as well as ancillary data (e.g., date of decision, result of decision) and associated census/demographic data appropriate for each time step and action (e.g., population density in the town, real estate values, land use, local zoning). Much of the data will be acquired through online means. There will be travel involved to points in the network to establish baseline ecological conditions and ownership, and to town halls to study relevant records. In some cases landowners will be interviewed to inquire about recent decisions that may have made. A valid drivers license and ability to use basic Microsoft Office software are necessary, as are interest in and the ability to meet and speak with landowners. Working knowledge of spatial information and GIS software is a plus.
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